As the NFL approaches Week 13 of the 2023 season, many teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, and others are already looking ahead to next year's NFL Draft. Twelve games into the current rookie class's career, it's far too early to label anyone a bust, but we can still gauge where each player is, with the benefit of hindsight.
Here's how the top-10 of this year's draft could shake out if teams had the benefit of a crystal ball.
1. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Bryce Young's career has not gotten off to the start that Carolina had hoped, and now he's playing under an interim head coach, and there will likely be a total regime change this coming offseason. There is still plenty of time for him to turn things around, and even though he's struggled mightily as a rookie, there were plenty of reasons why he went first overall.
Stroud, on the other hand, is setting records and has the Houston Texans fighting for a playoff spot. He's completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 3,266 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while adding three scores on the ground. He's playing some exceptional football and looks like a true franchise passer, and at this point is the obvious choice in a re-draft.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young is having a very rough go of things as a rookie, but if he were playing in Houston under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik like Stroud is, perhaps things would be different. Over his two seasons as a starter for the Crimson Tide, Young threw for 8,200 yards and 79 touchdowns. He was a prolific collegiate passer, won the Heisman Trophy, and displayed the traits that made him the first overall pick. A year from now, the conversation surrounding Young could be very different, and with Stroud already off the board here, the Texans are more than content taking him.
3. Houston Texans: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Will Anderson Jr. has had a fine rookie campaign thus far, but Jalen Carter would have been the first defensive player off the board had he not run into off-field issues before the draft, and this season is showing why. He's been an absolute terror inside for the Eagles while playing a position that is typically very difficult for rookies to be impactful at. Carter looks like the league's next great defensive tackle, and he's the obvious selection here.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Richardson was taken fourth overall by the Colts not because of his college performance, but because of his tantalizing physical skillset. He played in only four games before being shut down for the season with a shoulder injury, but he did show glimpses of his immense talent. Indianapolis is in rebuild mode, so they can afford to swing for the fences at the quarterback position.
Over his four games, Richardson averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and threw three TDs to one pick, adding 136 yards and four scores on the ground. He's a true dual-threat player with the ability to break a long run down the sideline, or effortlessly flick the ball down the field. From a complete physical standpoint, he is the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the league, but in order to take advantage of that, he'll need to stay healthy. He didn't play a whole lot in college and just needs snaps, which unfortunately he hardly got as a rookie. Even still, this pick doesn't change because of what Richardson could be.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Another selection that remains unchanged, the Seahawks look like they've struck gold with Witherspoon. He's been fantastic so far and has all the makings of a true No. 1 cornerback. Illinois isn't known as an NFL factory nowadays, but Witherspoon could go down as the best Fighting Illini of the past 20 years, perhaps even longer.
Witherspoon has been excellent in coverage, picking off one pass with he ran back 97 yards for a touchdown, and has 14 passes defended. His run defense and tackling is another huge part of his game, as he's logged 57 tackles, four tackles for loss, four QB hits, and three sacks. He affects both the run and the pass at a high level, and should be a cornerstone for the next phase of the Seattle defense.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Puka Nacua, WR, BYU
In real life, the Cardinals took Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr., and while he's having some growing pains, as most tackles do, Arizona should end up quite pleased with their selection. However, there is a wide receiever available here that is on pace for over 1,400 yards as a rookie, and it isn't the first one that was taken. In fact, it's not one that was taken in the first round, or any of the first four rounds.
Puka Nacua went in the fifth round, 177th overall, and has been one of the year's biggest surprises. He currently ranks seventh in targets and eighth in yards, providing Matthew Stafford with a reliable option as Cooper Kupp has missed time. It's fair to question whether Nacua's ceiling is worth a top-10 pick, but it's hard to argue with the on-field results at this point.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Anderson ends up falling four spots here, but that has more to do with other players in his class performing well, rather than him performing poorly. He's collected only three sacks, six tackles for loss, and 13 quarterback hits on the season, but he's providing solid pressure and is also playing the run very well. The Texans did give up a lot to move up and grab him at No. 3, so he'll always have that added expectation on him, but the Raiders are thrilled to land him here, and he'd give them a lot more production than Tyree Wilson is at the moment, as Wilson's physical talent appears to be a long way off from translating to consistency on the field. Las Vegas is in desperate need of stability anywhere, and Anderson could be a solid presence at a key position.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
There is a lot to be said about positional value here, but Robinson, when actually utilized, has been very, very good. He's averaging five yards per carry and 7.5 yards per reception for a total of 943 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. He's exciting to watch and is a big reason why the Falcons are somehow leading the NFC South and are positioned for a playoff berth. He figures to be the centerpiece of the offense moving forward, and perhaps his success will encourage other teams to take running backs high, provided prospects of Robinson's caliber are available.
9. Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Eagles stole Jalen Carter back in April, but they are not quite as fortunate this time around. Still, they end up with a realy good defender who went later than he should have. Branch, despite a terrific college career, fell to the second round because he ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash, when his tape should have put him around this area in the draft.
Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches on defense, and traded for Kevin Byard this season to make their secondary even better. Byard and Branch would have made for a terrific safety duo and their skillsets would have complemented each other very well, Branch also cannot be pigeonholed as strictly a safety, as he's logging plenty of snaps at nickel, which only increases his versatility and value.
10. Chicago Bears: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
The Bears wisely focused on improving their offensive line here, taking Tennessee's Darnell Right, but in hindsight, it appears as if Jones would be the better pick. The Ohio State product had first-round tape and ability, but fell to the fourth round due to concerns about his love for the game of football. The Cleveland Browns scooped him up, thinking that Jones would be able to sit and learn behind Jack Conklin as a rookie. Plans changed as Conklin went down for the season in Week 1, throwing Jones into a trial by fire, one which he is passing with flying colors, despite some very challenging matchups.
