Warm-up games are done and the 2023 FIBA World Cup tips off in the Philippines in less than 48 hours.
Lauri Markannen's Finland and Josh Giddey's Australia are the marquee match-up for the first game. Italy will face Angola at the same time, hosts Philippines will face the Dominican Republic a few hours later and the opening day of action will close with the best game of the day: Canada vs. France.
Team USA will play their first game on Saturday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern against New Zealand.
The first games are the opening phase of group play. The 32 teams in the tournament are split into 8 four-team groups. Teams will play the others in their group once from August 25th-Augsut 30th.
The top two teams from each group — 16 total — will then advance to the second round of group play where they will face the two teams they did NOT face in the first round of group play. They will NOT play a team they already played. This phase begins on Aug. 31 and ends on Sept. 3.
The top two teams from these groups will advance to the single-elimination quarterfinals which will be played on Sept. 5 and 6.
The semifinals will be played on Sept. 8 and the gold medal and bronze medal games will take place on Sept. 10.
We are going to break down all these groups for you: the countries in them, their NBA and notable players, head coach, and quickly summarize whether or not we think they'll advance in the tournament.
We'll make picks and predictions for each phase of play in the tournament and eventually predict the medalists.
The United States is still the favorite to win this summer, but the field is wide open. Let's get started.
*Note: The teams eliminated at each stage do break off into inverse loser brackets depending on where they got eliminated. To maintain our sanity, we are not going to make predictions about that.
Group A: Bruno Fernando, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jordan Clarkson, and Simone Fontecchio will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Angola
Head Coach: Josep Carlo
NBA Players: Bruno Fernando
Other Notable Players: None
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not: Watching Bruno Fernando try to will a team to victory might be fun, but this team doesn't have the talent to beat anyone in this group besides maybe the Philippines.
Dominican Republic
Head Coach: Nestor 'Che' Garcia
NBA Players: Karl-Anthony Towns, Chris Duarte, Lester Quinones
Other Notable Players: Jean Montero, Angel Delgado, L.J. Figueroa, and Andres Feliz
Do we expect them to advance? Yes, very much yes.
Why or why not: The Dominican Republic could be the shock team of the tournament. Towns is playing for them for the first time in a decade, they've got two other NBA players, solid overseas players to fill out the rotation, and head coach Che Garcia - who's from the same neighborhood as Manu Ginobili, Bahia Blanca - is one of the most decorated and established coaches in the tournament this summer. Get ready for them to turn heads.
Philippines
Head Coach: Chot Reyes
NBA Players: Jordan Clarkson, Kai Sotto
Other Notable Players: A.J. Edu and Ray Parks
Do we expect them to advance? Probably not.
Why or why not? They could beat Italy, but it's unlikely. Clarkson is in his dream world though where it's "Jordan Clarkson time" all the time, and maybe for one game he can't miss.
Italy
Head Coach: Gianmarco Pozzecco
NBA Players: Simone Fontecchio
Other Notable Players: Gigi Datome, Alessandro Pajola, Achille Polonara, Giampaolo Ricci, Matteo Spagnolo (Timberwolves stash), and Nicolo Melli
Do we expect them to advance? Probably yes.
Why or why not? This roster is pretty much all wings and forwards, but the overall talent should be enough to beat Angola and the Philippines. Spagnolo and Pajola are the players to watch here. Both are young, smart, skilled, and athletic. They'll be an entertaining duo for years to come.
Group B: Kyle Anderson, Ethan Thompson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Wenyen Gabriel will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
China
Head Coach: Sasa Dordevic
NBA Players: Kyle Anderson
Other Notable Players: Zhou Qi, Wang Zhelin, Hu Jinqiu, and Son Minghui
Do we expect them to advance? Probably not, but they have a chance against Puerto Rico and South Sudan.
Why or why not? Most of their roster are stars from the Chinese Basketball Association, which likely isn't enough but with Kyle Anderson becoming a naturalized citizen this summer they could go on a hot streak. Head coach Sasa Dordevic is very experienced and will make sure his team is not giving away easy points or possessions.
Puerto Rico
Head Coach: Nelson Colon
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Jordan Howard, Ethan Thompson, John Holland, Aleem Ford, Justin Reyes, and George Conditt IV
Do we expect them to advance? Probably.
Why or why not? Their game against China on August 30th could be a classic. They probably prevail, but if China plays well or Puerto Rico plays poorly it could be the end of the road for them.
Serbia
Head Coach: Svetislav Pesic
NBA Players: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Jovic, and Filip Petrusev
Other Notable Players: Nikola Milutinov, Mark Guduric, Aleksa Avramovic, Ognjen Dobric, Stefan Jovic, Vanja Marinkovic, Alen Smailagic
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Sure, they're missing Nikola Jokic and other NBA players but this team is still really solid. Pesic is a very good coach, Bogdanovic and Guduric are solid wing creators, they've got a lot of shooting, and Milutinov is arguably the best non-NBA center in the competition. They are probably the worst team that could knock out the United States with a disciplined approach and one of those games where the majority of Americans are saying "WHO EVEN IS THAT GUY??" following made open three-pointers.
South Sudan
Head Coach: Royal Ivey
NBA Players: Wenyen Gabriel
Other Notable Players: Marial Shayok, Carlik Jones
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? There's not nearly enough talent here, but it will be interesting to see if Ivey has anything up his sleeve as a head coach.
Group C: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Taine Murray, Dar Tucker, and Anthony Edwards will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Greece
Head Coach: Dimitrios Itoudis
NBA Players: Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Other Notable Players: Thomas Walkup, Kostas Papanikolaou, Kostas Antetokounmpo, Nikos Rogkavopolous, Ioannis Papapetrou, Georgios Papagiannis, Dinos Mitoglu
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? They're missing their three best players, including Giannis Antetokounmpo of course, but this group is weak. They'll take care of New Zealand and Jordan no problem. Walkup is naturalized, and now the Greek Kyle Lowry. Sturdy, a great defender, and impacts the game in a ton of ways as a guard. Rogkavopolous is their young talent and has drawn comparisons to last season's Euroleague MVP Sasha Vezenkov. Itoudis is one of the best basketball minds in the world.
They lack offensive creation, but Itoudis will certainly try everything and make every team work to beat them.
New Zealand
Head Coach: Pero Cameron
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Yanni Wetzell, Taine Murray, and Finn Delany
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They're not good enough.
Jordan
Head Coach: Wesam Al-Sous
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Dar Tucker
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They're not good enough.
USA
Head Coach: Steve Kerr
NBA Players: Paolo Banchero, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Brandon Ingram, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cameron Johnson, Walker Kessler, Bobby Portis, Austin Reaves, Josh Hart
Other Notable Players: None
Do we expect them to advance? No. Okay, that was a joke, of course we do.
Why or why not? Yes, this is a very weak USA team. Yes, Anthony Edwards might not be ready to be the guy. Yes, it's Steve Kerr's first tournament as head coach. Even with all that, this is easily the best roster in the tournament, and Team USA is still the favorite to win the gold medal.
Group D: Patrick Gardner, Jonas Valanciunas, Pako Cruz, and Nikola Vucevic will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Egypt
Head Coach: Roy Rana
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Patrick Gardner and Karim Elgizawy
Do we expect them to advance? No
Why or why not? Talent is not there, but Gardner and Elgizawy could be fun to watch.
Lithuania
Head Coach: Kazys Maksvytis
NBA Players: Jonas Valanciunas
Other Notable Players: Rokas Jokubaitis (Knicks stash), Donatas Motiejunas, Tadas Sedekerskis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Tomas Dimsa, Deividas Sirvydis, Ignas Brazdeikis
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Even though they're missing Domantas Sabonis and some other key players, Lithuania should comfortably sweep this group.
Mexico
Head Coach: Omar Quintero
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Pako Cruz, Juan Reyna, Victory Valdes, and Juan Camarga
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? Not enough talent, but college hoops fans could look forward to watching Reyna, Valdes, and Camarga.
Montenegro
Head Coach: Bosko Radovic
NBA Players: Nikola Vucevic
Other Notable Players: Bojan Dubljevic, Kendrick Perry, Jonah Radebaugh
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? They've got plenty of talent to beat Mexico and Egypt comfortably, but they likely lose to Lithuania.
Group E: Josh Giddey, Lauri Markannen, Franz Wagner, and Yuta Watanabe will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Australia
Head Coach: Brian Goorjian
NBA Players: Jack White, Mattise Thybulle, Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Josh Green, Josh Giddey, Dante Exum, Dyson Daniels, Xavier Cooks
Other Notable Players: Whoever else makes the final roster. Australia is deep.
Do we expect them to advance? Yes
Why or why not? This is a competitive group but Australia should still prevail. The opening game against Finland will be decisive. Their biggest weakness is lack of size, Jock Landale is out to rest his injured ankle. They could get obliterated on the backboards.
Finland
Head Coach: Lassi Tuovi
NBA Players: Lauri Markannen
Other Notable Players: Federiko Federiko, Miro Little, Olivier Nkamhoua, Sasu Salin, Elias Valtonen
Do we expect them to advance? Probably not.
Why or why not? Markannen is awesome in FIBA play but he's going to have to find a way to will this team to victory against Australia or Germany, two of the best teams in the tournament. That will be a very difficult challenge.
Germany
Head Coach: Gordon Herbert
NBA Players: Dennis Schroder, Franz Wagner, Mo Wagner, Daniel Theis
Other Notable Players: Johannes Voigtmann, Isaac Bonga, Niels Giffey, Maodo Lo, Andreas Obst
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Australia has much more NBA talent but the Germans have two players who apply a lot of rim pressure - Schroder and Franz Wagner - who open up the floor for their shooters. Their connectivity is stronger, but just like Australia, they can't have a bad game against Finland.
Japan
Head Coach: Tom Hovasse
NBA Players: Yuta Watanabe
Other Notable Players: Keisei Tominaga, Yudai Baba, Yuki Kawamura
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? If Japan had Hachmiure and Watanabe you might be able to talk yourself into a potential upset over one of the teams in this group that could make things interesting, but without Hachimura it's hard to see them even beating Finland.
Group F: Edy Tavares, Goga Bitadze, Luka Doncic, and Michael Garrera will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Cape Verde
Head Coach: Emanuel Trovoada
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Edy Tavares, Will Tavares, Betinho Gomes
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They don't have enough talent and have even had issues getting the funding to make it to the tournament, their first-ever FIBA World Cup appearance by the way. Edy Tavares is one of the best players outside the NBA, especially with FIBA rules which means no defensive three seconds, but it's unlikely he can stay on the floor for enough minutes to help them upset Georgia.
Georgia
Head Coach: Ilias Zouros
NBA Players: Goga Bitadze, Sandro Mamukelashvili
Other Notable Players: Toko Shengelia, Giorgi Shermadini, Duda Sanadze, Thad McFadden, Davit Kakushadze
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? This is a weak group and they should get through at 2-1 comfortably. Do we think Georgia would trade Shermadini to Australia for Dante Exum? That would help address both teams' issues.
Slovenia
Head Coach: Aleksander Sekulic
NBA Players: Luka Doncic
Other Notable Players: Mike Tobey, Klemen Prepelic, Jaka Blazic, Zoran Dragic
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Doncic.
Venezuela
Head Coach: Fernando Durro
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Michael Garrera, Enrique Medina
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They are not good enough.
Group G: Raul Neto, Hamed Haddadi, Mo Bamba, and Santi Aldama will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Brazil
Head Coach: Gustavo De Conti
NBA Players: Raul Neto (signed with Fenerbahce for next season)
Other Notable Players: Marcelo Huertas, Yago Dos Santos, Vitor Benite, Didi Louzada, Gui Santos, Bruno Caboclo, Felipe Dos Anjos, Cristiano Felicio
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? They don't have anyone slated to play in the NBA next season, but they still have a lot of talent. They've also got size that can shoot and provide a vertical threat, paired with wings that knock down open shots, and a trio of guards who are excellent at weaving into the paint via the pick-and-roll and making the right read. They will struggle on the defensive end, but be very entertaining.
Iran
Head Coach: Hakan Demir
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Hamed Haddadi, Mohammad Amini
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They don't have enough talent.
Ivory Coast
Head Coach: Dejan Prokic
NBA Players: Mo Bamba
Other Notable Players: Charles Abduo, Sanogo Ismael, Matt Costello, Alex Poythress, Aboubacar Traore
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? Decent size and some talent, but not nearly enough balance to beat Brazil or Spain.
Spain
Head Coach: Sergio Scariolo
NBA Players: Santi Aldama, Usman Garuba
Other Notable Players: Alberto Diaz, Sergio Llull, Alberto Abalde, Alex Abrines, Dario Brizuela, Joel Parra, Rudy Fernandez, Victor Claver, Willy Hernangomez, Juancho Hernangomez, Juan Nunez
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Do they really need an explanation? Their golden generation has passed us by, but this team is still very talented, very deep, and very experienced. They'll be a tough out for anyone.
Group H: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Rudy Gobert, Davis Bertans, and Omari Spellman will be trying to lead their countries to the next phase of play
Canada
Head Coach: Jordi Fernandez
NBA Players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. RJ Barrett, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Oshae Brissett, Dillon Brooks, Lu Dort, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell
Other Notable Players: Kyle Alexander, Zach Edey, Melvin Ejim, Kevin Pangos
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? Talent-wise, probably the second-best team in the tournament. They're one of two teams with an All-NBA First Team player (Doncic with Slovenia) and Gilgeous-Alexander is surrounded with a ton of NBA talent.
France
Head Coach: Vincent Collet
NBA Players: Evan Fournier, Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum
Other Notable Players: Elie Okobo, Nando De Colo, Guerschon Yabusele, Terry Tarpey, Matthias Lessort, Moustapha Fall
Do we expect them to advance? Yes.
Why or why not? They remain one of the best teams in the world. They lack a true point guard though, which could hurt them in the later rounds.
Latvia
Head Coach: Luca Banchi
NBA Players: Davis Bertans
Other Notable Players: Rodions Kurucs, Dairis Bertans, Janis Timma, Roland Smits, Anzejs Pasecniks, Arturs Kurucs, Arturs Zagars, Kristers Zoriks
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They have talent but no Kristaps Porzingis means there's zero path to victory against France or Canada.
Lebanon
Head Coach: Jad El Hajj
NBA Players: None
Other Notable Players: Omari Spellman
Do we expect them to advance? No.
Why or why not? They don't have enough talent.
Group I: Karl-Anthony Towns, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Simone Fontecchio, and Ethan Thompson will be trying to lead their countries to the quarterfinals
This is officially the second phase of group play, group I-L.
Each team will play two games in this phase against the two teams who they have NOT already played.
Teams: Dominican Republic, Serbia, Italy, Puerto Rico
Who do we expect to advance? Dominican Republic and Serbia
The two big games are the Dominican Republic vs. Serbia, and Serbia vs. Italy. Both teams can take advantage of Serbia's biggest weakness: their immobile bigs.
Karl-Anthony Towns can space the floor and force Nikola Milutinov to leave his comfort zone on defense. If Serbia tries to guard Towns with a smaller player, he'll punish them in the post.
Italy has a roster full of shooters, at all five positions. They'll be playing five-out basketball and testing Serbia's slow-footed bigs as well. Serbia should still have enough talent to win and have the tiebreaker over Italy, but they'll likely draw Team USA in the quarterfinals.
The Dominican Republic will be in a great position to continue their fairytale run if they can finish first in this group
Group J: Anthony Edwards, Jonas Valanciunas, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Vucevic will be trying to lead their countries to the quarterfinals
Teams: USA, Lithuania, Greece, Montenegro
Who do we expect to advance? USA and Lithuania.
Team USA still shouldn't be challenged at this phase. Perhaps Lithuania can make things interesting for a half, but the talent gap is too large to see them succumbing to defeat.
Montenegro will likely lose to Greece, and this will make Lithuania vs. Greece a winner-take-all affair.
Greece will be prepared to make this game as ugly as possible. They'll keep it in the half-court, crash the offensive glass, and give fouls when they need to. If Thomas Walkup or Nikos Rogkavopolous get hot they'll make the game a guaranteed wire-to-wire affair.
Lithuania can match their size though with Valanciunas and Motiejunas, and they are more skilled on the wings and have guards who are better threats in the pick-and-roll. As long as they are healthy, don't go ice cold from three, and avoid significant foul trouble they should be able to tough this one out.
Group K: Luka Doncic, Franz Wagner, Josh Giddey, and Goga Bitadze will be trying to lead their countries to the quarterfinals
Teams: Germany, Slovenia, Australia, Georgia
Who do we expect to advance? Germany and Slovenia
The bet here is that Luka Doncic is going to turn in an all-time FIBA performance and empower Slovenia to beat Australia. On paper, is this likely? No.
Australia has more depth and has the bodies to throw at Doncic. Thybulle, who Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks tried to sign this summer, will certainly spend a chunk of this game chasing him.
Dante Exum, who the Dallas Mavericks did sign this summer, will also likely match up with him. Australia is a tough team, they'll get physical, and Slovenia does not have a post or rebound presence that can consistently punish their lack of size.
But Slovenia has Doncic, who won't see anyone at the rim that makes him think twice about driving. All he has to do is knock down a few of his signature step-backs and the game will open wide for him, and his teammates. If Mike Tobey, Kremen Prepelic, and Jaka Blazic are making their shots they can get by with a heroic Doncic performance.
He's done it before, so why wouldn't he do it again?
Group K: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Rudy Gobert, Santi Aldama, and Raul Neto will be trying to lead their countries to the quarterfinals
Teams: Spain, Canada, Brazil, France
Who do we expect to advance? Canada and France.
There are going to be some great games in this group, and Spain gets a tough draw having to face Canada and France while those two will each get a game against Brazil.
It's worth noting that Brazil is not a guaranteed win. Canada and France should win those games, but Brazil has the tools to make this group even more interesting than it already is.
However, we're going to assume that both Canada and France beat Brazil. Canada also gets the edge over Spain due to the talent gap and Spain's lack of a trustworthy point guard that can endure running their offense and guarding either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, or Kevin Pangos at the other end.
If Juan Nunez pulls that off though, he better get in the first round of someone's mock draft.
This leaves France vs. Spain, a historic European basketball rivalry. Spain beat France in the 2011 Eurobasket final, France beat Spain in overtime in the 2013 semifinals, Spain beat France in overtime in the 2015 semifinals, and last year Spain beat France in the Eurobasket gold medal game.
France is due for a win, and their center rotation of Rudy Gobert, Moustapha Fall, and Matthias Lessort gives them the bodies to throw at Santi Aldama, Juancho Hernangomez, and Willy Hernangomez.
They've also got better talent overall, and much more reliable on-ball creators. They should win this game, and get some revenge for last summer.
Quarterfinals - First Match-Up: Karl Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic will take on Jonas Valanciunas and Lithuania
Who do we expect to advance? Dominican Republic.
This will be a great game. The Dominican Republic will have the majority of neutral viewers supporting them at this stage, but Lithuania will continue to be tough and their rich basketball history will inspire them to stand strong against the Dominican Republic's run.
The Dominican Republic will pose a lot of match-up issues for Lithuania though. Karl-Anthony Towns will pull Jonas Valanciunas and Donata Motiejunas away from the paint and put them on an island.
From there, they'll either get in foul trouble, let Towns get to the rim, or dare him to have a great shooting night which he's more than capable of.
Chris Duarte, Lester Quinones, and L.J. Figueroa will have plenty of opportunities to attack closeouts and either finish at the rim or kick to open shooters themselves.
Lithuania will need to keep the game in the half-court, attack Towns in the post with Valanciunas and Motiejunas and see if they can get him in foul trouble, and run the Dominican Republic off the three-point line.
Our bet is they don't have enough, and the Dominican Republic's dreams of getting a medal very much become a reality.
Quarterfinals - Second Match-Up: Franz Wagner and Germany will take on Rudy Gobert and France
Who do we expect to advance? Germany
Part of this pick is that Germany winning is more fun, there's no denying that. But they also have the two best offensive players in this game: Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner.
France does not have one player capable of staying in front of Schroder, not one. Nicolas Batum was at one point a lockdown defender but at this age, it's hard to imagine him hanging with Wagner's young legs for an extended stretch.
France will throw Terry Tarpey, Guerschon Yabusele, and other options at Wagner as well but with all due respect, Wagner should be putting those guys in a blender.
The key adjustment Schroder and Wagner will have to make is making sure they utilize mid-range jumpers and floaters. Even as they cook France's perimeter defense, Rudy Gobert will still be back there protecting the rim.
Germany's two centers - Daniel Theis and Johannes Voigtmann - can space the floor as well and either force Gobert to leave the paint and let Wagner and Schroder eat at the rim, or get open looks from three and have a feast themselves.
Germany is not just more fun, they have the tools to get the job done and take down France.
Quarterfinals - Third Match-Up: Anthony Edwards and Team USA will take on Bogdan Bogdanovic and Serbia
Who do we expect to advance? USA
Serbia has the talent to make this game interesting, and they probably will. How long they make it interesting will depend on their three-point shooting.
Not just Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jovic, but also their role players. Bogdanovic will be running as many pick-and-rolls as possible with Nikola Milutinov and will be kicking out to Ognjen Dobric, Marko Guduric, Jovic, Filip Petrusev, and Alen Smailagic.
If these role players are making open shots for four quarters, they'll have the offense to stay in this game.
On the other side of the ball, they have the size to match up with Team USA, but playing Milutinov alongside Petrusev or Smailagic could kill them.
Milutinov is already not quick enough to move his feet with Team USA opponents, and Petrusev and Smailagic are even slower. One player on the court for Team USA to exploit is probably enough to make sure they win, two is gift wrapping the win for them.
Serbia will probably resort to drop coverage, but Team USA should still be comfortable finishing against whoever Serbia's backline is.
It might be competitive for a while, but Team USA should pull away and win this one.
Quarterfinals - Fourth Match-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada will take on Luka Doncic and Slovenia
Who do we expect to advance? Canada
This match-up pits the competitions two All-NBA First Team talents against each other in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic.
Canada will finally prove to be too much for Doncic and Slovenia.
You still can't count Doncic and Slovenia out, but the talent gap is too big here. Canada has the elite offensive talent to go punch-for-punch with anything Doncic pulls out of his bag, and at the remaining positions, they wipe the floor with Slovenia.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dillon Brooks, and R.J. Barrett will take Canada to the semifinals, and this one could get ugly quickly if Slovenia isn't making their open shots which will likely deflate any Doncic heroics.
There's not much more to say on this one. Canada is just better.
Semifinals - First Match-Up: Franz Wagner and Germany will take on Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic
Who do we expect to advance? Germany
The Dominican Republic's run comes to an end here. The Germans have more talent, they've got talented size that can match up with Karl-Anthony Towns, and this is the first time where their wings and guards are inferior to their opponents.
Wagner should have a field day no matter who the Dominican Republic puts in front of him, and even Dennis Schroder will pose a challenge to Duarte and Quinones.
Towns will also be taken out of the paint whether he's guarding Daniel Theis or Johannes Voigtmann.
This game will make it clear that Germany has not only high-level talent that can win them big games but also a very balanced roster with good depth. The pieces of the puzzle fit, and that's why they're going to play for the gold medal.
Semifinals - Second Match-Up: Anthony Edwards and Team USA will take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada
Who do we expect to advance? Canada
The North American basketball rivalry will be officially underway, and Canada will strike first. This could easily be one of the greatest FIBA games of all time.
Both teams are full of NBA talent. Both teams match up very well, the United States doesn't have the best player on the court, and this tournament is shaping up for a disappointing Team USA defeat somewhere.
The main thing Canada can tap into is Team USA's lack of size. Jaren Jackson Jr. is awesome, but asking him to deal with Dwight Powell and Kelly Olynyk - who Canada has played together - on the backboards is a lot.
Canada also has the guard play to sustain Team USA's perimeter pressure, essentially negating one of their biggest advantages throughout the tournament.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of this team will become certified Canadian legends after this one, and Dillon Brooks will be as insufferable as ever.
The Medal Games - Team USA will face the Dominican Republic for Bronze, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada will take on Franz Wagner and Germany for Gold
Bronze Medal Match-Up: Team USA vs. Dominican Republic
Who do we expect to win? Team USA. A very sad ending for the Dominican Republic, they won't have anything to show for their incredible run.
Gold Medal Match-Up: Canada vs. Germany
Who do we expect to win?: Canada
If you beat the United States, you better win the gold medal. Don't embarrass the United States even more by finishing with the silver medal.
This is a great match-up, and would likely be an awesome gold medal game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Dennis Schroder
Dillon Brooks and R.J. Barrett vs. Franz Wagner
Kelly Olynyk and Dwight Powell vs. Mo Wagner and Daniel Theis
A bench mainly composed of NBA role players vs. a bench composed of quality overseas players.
Canada has an edge due to having two players who finally match up very well with Schroder and Wagner. Germany has other players who can contribute - Andreas Obst has shot the ball very well in their exhibition games - but relying on their role players in a game of this magnitude is likely not a recipe for success.
Canada has the talent edge, the best player, and a better rotation. That's why we're picking them to win the gold medal for the first time in their country's history.
